Topline
The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is close to a dead heat just six weeks before the election, according to a string of post-debate surveys that found voters believe Harris outperformed Trump in last week’s debate—but not enough to significantly shift the race in her favor.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a rally Friday, Sept. 13, 2024 at the McHale Athletic Club in ... [+]
Key Facts
Harris and Trump are tied at 47%, according to a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 that found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump (Trump led Harris 48%-47% in Times/Siena surveys from early September and late July).
Two other polls from Sept. 19 show Harris with a slight edge: She’s up by four points (49%-45%) in a YouGov/Economist survey of registered voters, and two points (50%-48%) in Fox News’ likely voter survey, a small shift after Harris trailed by one point in an early August Fox poll and led by just two points in an early September YouGov poll.
Harris led Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, with 8% undecided, in a new Forbes/HarrisX survey of 3,018 registered voters taken Sept. 11-13 (margin of error 1.8), after the two were tied at 45% with 10% undecided in a pre-debate HarrisX survey of 1,003 registered voters taken Sept. 9-10 (margin of error 3.1).
In a Monmouth University poll of 803 registered voters taken Sept. 11-15 (margin of error 3.9), 49% said they will definitely or probably vote for Harris, while 44% said the same about Trump—results that nearly mirror the group’s August survey that found Harris leading 48% to 43%.
Harris leads Trump 51% to 45% in Morning Consult’s likely voter survey taken Sept. 13-15, a three-point increase since before the Sept. 10 debate and her widest lead yet in the group’s weekly surveys (Harris led 50% to 45% among likely voters in a one-day Morning Consult poll taken Sept. 11, immediately after the debate).
Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
Also after the debate, Harris led by a five-point margin—47% to 42%—in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters that closed Sept. 12, (in late August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 45%-41% advantage).
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that found Harris led Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still led him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll.
In a Wall Street Journal poll released Aug. 29, Harris led Trump 48%-47% head-to-head, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% edge a month prior (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).
The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).
Big Number
2.1. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 3.2-point lead.
Surprising Fact
A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads Trump by two points overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey taken Aug. 23-27. Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states, and is tied in Arizona.
Tangent
Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June to four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris to be the winner of the debate, as she repeatedly needled Trump, causing him to veer off topic. The majority of voters, 53%, who said they had heard at least something about the debate said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won, and the rest didn’t answer, Reuters/Ipsos found. Far more Democrats (91%) also said Harris won, than the share of Republicans (53%) who said Trump did, according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey.
Further Reading
New HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Harris Won Debate—But It Largely Hasn’t Changed Voters’ Minds (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris (Forbes)
Harris’ Lead Over Trump Unchanged After DNC, First Poll Finds (Forbes)