investment? We propose two directions for this
question: non-monetary opportunity/risk identifica-
tion and scenario planning.
As we shown in Section 2, many studies pay
attention to monetary return or volatility prediction.
It can be based on news articles, social media, pro-
fessional reports, meeting between investors and
company managers, and so on. However, limited
studies try to identify the opportunity and risk from
non-monetary aspects, i.e., ESG aspect. Since the
impact period of ESG-related events may be longer
than that of traditional monetary events, such as
the increase of earning, decrease of sales, etc, we
think that one of the important directions is to iden-
tify whether the given event is the opportunity or
risk to ESG and how it will influence companies’
simple statistical methods perform better than neu-
ral network models in multivariate long sequence
time-series forecasting. That raises an open is-
sue: whether their claim holds true when we at-
tempt to evaluate long-term non-monetary impacts?
Since many market information forecasting studies
mainly pay attention to short-term prediction (e.g.,
next day, 3-day, and 1 week), we want to encourage
more studies to pay attention to long-term value
assessment.
In addition to identifying the opportunity and
risk, we think that scenario planning (analysis) is
one of the key directions that FinNLP can help in
impact investment. The goal of scenario planning
is to understand the possible impact of the event
better rather than to predict the future. For example,
in addition to identifying whether it is a risk to the
agricultural industry when a piece of news related
to “climate anomalies” is given, we expect models
to generate some plausible scenarios such as “it
would lead to lack of water”, and this scenario can
be extended to “it may influence the agricultural
industry”.
Besides the most possible scenario, the worst-
case scenario should also be generated for discus-
sion. That is, when performing scenario planning,
experts first generate many scenarios regardless of
the probability of occurrence. And then, experts
will select a few key scenarios for discussions and
try to figure out some solutions to these key scenar-
ios. Because scenario planning plays an important
role in both monetary and non-monetary based fi-
nancial decision, we think that it is a good direction
to explore for providing better help to both individ-
ual and industrial investors.