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How Incumbents Survive and Thrive

Ellen Jantzen

Summary.   

While many believe that technological disruption has been rampant for decades, the internet has actually caused much less creative destruction than people think. An analysis of the Fortune 500 and the Global 500, in fact, reveals that most sectors have been surprisingly stable over the past 25 years. Very few firms on those lists today were launched after 1995. What else is misunderstood? The best response to disrupters. The default is to fight back with a new digital unit or a transformation. But there are three other viable strategies: doubling down on your existing strengths (as Disney did); retrenching to ensure your survival (as banks are doing); and moving into new opportunities (as Fuji did). Each strategy has benefits and risks, and your circumstances determine which one you should pursue.

The prevailing narrative in business today is one of ever faster change and creative destruction: Big Tech companies are taking over, the number of unicorns (start-ups worth $1 billion) keeps growing, the average tenure of old-economy companies on the S&P 500 is plummeting, and incumbency has never been worth less. The message to established firms—play catch-up or die—is bleak.

A version of this article appeared in the January–February 2022 issue of Harvard Business Review.

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